Islamic State's deadliest Somalia attack spotlights regional instability

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Friday January 10, 2025

Armed fighters of the Islamic State Somalia Province (ISS) stand in formation in the rugged terrain of northern Somalia, reflecting the group's growing presence and operational sophistication in the region.

Mogadishu (HOL) — The Islamic State Somalia Province (ISS) executed its most sophisticated attack to date on December 31, targeting Puntland’s security forces and underscoring the evolving threat posed by extremist groups in the region. The assault, involving coordinated use of suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) and suicide vests (SVESTs), struck a military base near the Cal Miskaad mountains, disrupting planned counter-offensives by Puntland forces. The development reflects broader concerns about ISS's growing international composition and potential to fuel global terror networks.

The ISS attack targeted a key security base approximately 60 kilometres south of the group’s stronghold in northern Somalia. Attackers breached the base’s perimeter with SVBIEDs before engaging in intense combat using small arms and rocket-propelled grenades. Somali authorities reported at least 18 security personnel killed, while nine ISS fighters equipped with SVESTs were neutralized. It marked the first ISS suicide attack in Somalia since 2023 and showcased an alarming escalation in its operational sophistication.

ISS likely aimed to disrupt Puntland’s counter-operations targeting its havens in the Cal Miskaad mountains. Puntland authorities had announced plans for a major offensive against ISS in late 2024, mobilizing thousands of troops and heavy equipment. By targeting mobilization points, ISS sought to weaken the government’s ability to conduct these operations effectively.

Despite this offensive posture, ISS's primary focus remains logistical and administrative support for the global Islamic State network. ISS generates millions annually through extortion and illegal taxation, funnelling resources to affiliates in regions such as Afghanistan, Mozambique, and Yemen. This global reach amplifies concerns about ISS's capacity to support external terror plots.

An influx of foreign fighters has bolstered ISS's capabilities, as evidenced by the December 31 attack. Fighters from North Africa, the Middle East, and East Africa participated in the assault, signalling an increasingly international composition. This mirrors historical patterns where foreign fighters enhanced the operational capabilities of Salafi-jihadi groups, such as al Shabaab, in the late 2000s.

U.S. and U.N. reports from 2024 noted ISS's growth, with its ranks swelling to 600-700 fighters, up from 250 in 2023. This expansion includes a significant presence of foreign trainers and ideologues. The internationalization of ISS raises alarms about its potential to facilitate external attacks, exemplified by recent incidents linked to ISS-associated cells in Sweden and the United States.

The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which began on January 1, 2025, has faced delays in finalizing its force composition, creating opportunities for al Shabaab. The new mission, which replaced ATMIS, focuses on combating al Shabaab while delegating state-building efforts to Somalia and international partners.

Uncertainty around troop contributions has compounded challenges. Burundi’s withdrawal and ongoing disputes involving Egypt and Ethiopia have raised questions about AUSSOM’s cohesion. Ethiopia’s recent agreement to contribute troops follows a year-long diplomatic standoff over its military involvement in Somalia, further complicated by tensions with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

The unresolved issues within AUSSOM and the escalating capabilities of ISS and al Shabaab create a volatile security environment. Al Shabaab has regained significant ground in central Somalia, reversing gains from the Somali Federal Government’s 2022 offensive. These setbacks, coupled with ISS's expanding influence, underscore the urgent need for a coordinated and robust response to address the intertwined threats of terrorism and regional instability.

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