by Patrick Kenyette
Tuesday September 3, 2024
Egypt delivered its first military aid to Somalia in over four decades last Tuesday, according to diplomatic and Somali government sources. This move is expected to escalate tensions between Egypt, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
Egypt and Somalia have strengthened their relationship this year, particularly after Ethiopia signed a preliminary agreement with Somaliland. This deal involves leasing coastal land in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence from Somalia. The Mogadishu government has condemned this agreement, viewing it as an attack on its sovereignty and vowing to block it by any means necessary.
Egypt’s Strategic Interests in Somalia
Egypt has long been at odds with Ethiopia over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. The recent Somaliland deal has further strained relations. In response, Egypt signed a security pact with Somalia earlier this month and has offered to send troops to a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia.
Last Tuesday morning, two Egyptian military planes arrived at Mogadishu airport carrying weapons and ammunition. This delivery marks the first military aid from Egypt to Somalia in over 40 years. A video shared on social media, verified by Reuters, showed the planes on the airport tarmac.
According to a recent report by the UAE’s National daily newspaper, Egypt has currently deployed a contingent of 1,000 commandos to Somalia, with plans for an additional 10,000 troops to arrive soon. This contingent will include 5,000 personnel under the auspices of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AUMIS) and another 5,000 as part of bilateral agreements with the Somali government.
In addition, the delivery of advanced military equipment, including anti-tank weaponry, raiders, missiles, and drones, is imminent, with the transportation set to occur via military warships in the coming days.
One diplomat warned that Somalia was “playing with fire” by importing Egyptian arms and antagonizing Ethiopia. Somalia has previously threatened to expel Ethiopia’s troops, who are part of a peacekeeping mission and bilateral agreements to combat al Shabaab militants, if the Somaliland deal is not canceled.
Egypt’s military has long been a dominant power in the Middle East and Africa. With a robust defense infrastructure, advanced weaponry, and a well-trained military force.
Egypt’s offer to contribute troops to a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia was announced in an African Union communique earlier this month. However, Cairo has not publicly commented on the matter. Analysts suggest that if Egyptian troops are deployed along the border with Ethiopia, it could lead to direct confrontation or a proxy conflict.
Ethiopia is increasingly concerned over the defense deal signed earlier last month between Egypt and Somalia, two countries that Addis Ababa is embroiled in disputes with amid rising tensions in the Horn of Africa region
Ethiopia’s foreign affairs ministry expressed concern over actions that could destabilize the region, emphasizing its efforts to promote peace and security in Somalia. The ministry accused the Somali government of colluding with external actors to destabilize the region.
Details of the deal have not been made public but Ali Abdi Aware, the Somali ambassador to Cairo, told a radio station in Mogadishu that the arrival of military equipment from Egypt to Somalia this week was “the first practical step to implementing” that deal.
Somalia has sought to block landlocked Ethiopia’s ongoing efforts to gain access to the Red Sea via a contentious agreement with Somaliland to lease a stretch of land along Somaliland’s coastline, where Ethiopia would establish a marine force base. In return, according to Somaliland authorities, Ethiopia would recognize Somaliland as an independent country.
Somaliland seceded from Somalia more than 30 years ago but is not recognized by the African Union or the United Nations as an independent state. Somalia still considers Somaliland part of its territory.
Somalia’s federal government has since 2007 been supported by an African Union peacekeeping mission in fighting the Islamic extremist group al-Shabab, which has ties with al-Qaida and is responsible deadly attacks across the country.
Even after the AU peacekeepers leave, troops from countries such as Uganda and Burundi may stay in Somalia under bilateral deals.
Ongoing Diplomatic Efforts
Turkey has hosted two rounds of indirect talks between Somalia and Ethiopia regarding the Somaliland deal, with a third round expected next month. Ethiopia, a landlocked country, seeks access to the sea, while Mogadishu insists that Somaliland remains part of Somalia despite its practical autonomy for over 30 years.
The situation remains fluid, with potential implications for regional stability and international relations in the Horn of Africa.