Thursday October 10, 2024
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki engage in bilateral talks during an official visit in Asmara, Eritrea, on October 9, 2024. The two leaders discussed deepening military cooperation and strengthening ties amidst shifting regional dynamics. Credit: Villa Somalia
Mogadishu (HOL) — Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived in Asmara, Eritrea, on Wednesday for an official state visit, marking his fourth trip to the country since taking office in 2022. His visit is likely aimed at fortifying a budding tripartite alliance involving Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt, which has developed in opposition to Ethiopia's increasing assertiveness in the region. Mohamud was welcomed at Asmara International Airport by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and senior Eritrean officials.
Mohamud's trip follows a series of high-level meetings between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia in recent months.
A major focus of this visit is deepening military cooperation between Somalia and Eritrea. Since 2019, Eritrea has played a pivotal role in training Somali military personnel, including cadets specializing in infantry and mechanized units. These Eritrean-trained forces have been critical to the Somali government's efforts to counter Al-Shabaab militants, with recent military operations reportedly eliminating over 1,650 extremists in the last two months.
Eritrea's strategic interest in this new coalition stems from regional security concerns and historical rivalries. Since gaining independence from Ethiopia in 1993, Eritrea has long viewed Ethiopia as a rival, particularly regarding control over access to the Red Sea. The animosity deepened during the Ethiopia-Eritrea border war (1998-2000), and while a fragile peace was brokered in 2018, relations remain uneasy. Eritrea has been concerned about Ethiopia's efforts to regain access to the sea.
The strengthening relationship between Somalia and Eritrea is part of a broader realignment in the Horn of Africa, where regional alliances are shifting.
Somalia, alongside Eritrea and Egypt, has grown increasingly critical of Ethiopia's regional ambitions, particularly following Ethiopia's controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland. The MoU, which grants Ethiopia naval access to Somaliland's coastline in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland's independence, has been condemned by Mogadishu as a violation of Somalia's sovereignty.
At the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York last month, Somalia's Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, and Eritrea's Foreign Minister Osman Saleh held a trilateral meeting to affirm their commitment to the stability and security of their respective countries.
President Mohamud has made clear that Somalia will oppose the agreement, even threatening to expel Ethiopian peacekeepers from the African Union-led mission in Somalia if the MoU is not scrapped. This potential flashpoint between Somalia and Ethiopia comes as Ethiopia's influence in the region wanes, with countries like Egypt and Eritrea stepping up their support for Somalia's territorial integrity. Egypt has played an increasingly prominent role in Somalia's defence strategy, supplying military aid and training to Somali forces. In recent months, Cairo has delivered two major arms shipments to Mogadishu, including artillery and anti-aircraft guns. These deliveries mark the largest military aid packages Egypt has sent to Somalia in decades and have been met with sharp criticism from Ethiopia, which views Egypt's growing influence in Somalia as a direct threat to its own interests.
The military partnership between Somalia and Egypt has further isolated Ethiopia, whose relations with its neighbours have soured over disputes such as the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the MoU with Somaliland. Somalia, backed by both Egypt and Eritrea, has aligned itself with these powers to counter Ethiopia's regional aspirations, particularly over naval access to the Red Sea and control of strategic maritime routes.
Eritrea's strategic location along the Red Sea, near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, makes it a key player in the region's security dynamics. Both Eritrea and Egypt have expressed concerns about the security of the Red Sea's shipping lanes. Egyptian intelligence chief Kamal Abbas and Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty made a surprise visit to Asmara last month, where they discussed securing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and restoring stability to the Red Sea region.
Since losing its Red Sea ports after Eritrea's independence in 1993, Ethiopia has sought to regain a foothold in the region. However, Somalia's opposition to Ethiopia's naval ambitions in Somaliland has intensified regional rivalries, with the Horn of Africa now split between two major geopolitical blocs—one led by Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the other aligned with Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea.