Friday December 13, 2024
Mogadishu (HOL) — Somalia faces an escalating political and military crisis as the Somali National Army (SNA) suffered a decisive defeat in the southern town of Ras Kamboni on Wednesday. Intense clashes with Jubaland's regional forces highlighted the growing schism between Somalia's federal government and its semi-autonomous states, jeopardizing efforts to combat the militant group Al-Shabaab.
The fighting in Ras Kamboni, near the Kenyan border, reportedly began when the SNA launched drone strikes targeting Jubaland forces, according to Jubaland officials. The Somali federal government denied this claim, alleging instead that Jubaland's troops attacked newly deployed SNA units sent to take over bases vacated by withdrawing African Union (AU) personnel.
Jubaland reported that at least ten individuals, mostly SNA soldiers, were killed in the clashes. Hundreds of SNA troops were said to have fled or surrendered, with some reportedly crossing into Kenya. Kenyan Defense Forces have not officially confirmed these accounts.
The clashes are rooted in a power struggle between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ahmed Madobe. Tensions escalated in November when Madobe was re-elected for a third term as Jubaland's president, defying Somalia's constitutional two-term limit for regional leaders. The election, conducted under a clan-based voting system, further strained relations with Mogadishu, which has been advocating for universal suffrage.
Mogadishu declared the election invalid and issued an arrest warrant for Madobe, who refused to step down. Jubaland retaliated by issuing its own arrest warrant for President Hassan Sheikh. The federal government's deployment of additional SNA troops to Jubaland, ostensibly to take over AU bases, was perceived by Jubaland as preparation for a broader offensive to oust Madobe.
The situation deteriorated in early December when minor skirmishes broke out in Ras Kamboni. These hostilities escalated into full-scale conflict, prompting Madobe to sever Jubaland's ties with Mogadishu. Jubaland subsequently aligned with Puntland, another federal state in open opposition to the federal government.
The federal government's dispute with Jubaland has severely undermined Somalia's campaign against Al-Shabaab. Joint operations between the SNA and Jubaland forces, a cornerstone of the federal government's "phase two" counter-offensive against Al-Shabaab, are now in jeopardy. These efforts had recently yielded meaningful gains, including the recapture of several towns in Lower Juba. Al-Shabaab could exploit the disarray to strengthen its foothold in southern Somalia without a swift resolution to the political impasse.
The withdrawal of AU forces has already created security gaps across Somalia. The political infighting between the federal government and Jubaland exacerbates these vulnerabilities, raising concerns about Somalia's ability to maintain national cohesion.